“Peak Growth” – unemployment rates are at a 40-year low. That just tells you the number of new people we can find to get to work is a lot lower than imagined
- importance of demographics has still not been internalized by people
global economy grew at a pace of nearly 4 percent between 1950 and 2008 – most people use that as a sort of reference number
- a sort of anchoring biased. That’s what the global economy should be growing at. The U.S. economy should be growing at 3 percent to 4 percent
- we’re forgetting is that that was the only time in history that the global economy grew at such a robust pace, and the single most important reason for that was we had a massive surge in population across the world like never before
two drivers of economic growth.
- One is increase in productivity,
- and two is the increase in world’s labor force
increase in the world’s labor force between 1950 and 2005 was exceptional and that has come to an end
- that big demographic surge has come to an end and yet we want to keep harking back to the sort of growth rates that we had in that golden era
valuations of tech companies are just staggering
- Apple’s valuation and market capitalization is larger than the entire country of Italy
- market cap of Mexico is now smaller than the market cap of Google
irresponsible is that in the ninth year of an economic expansion, you should be running such a large budget deficit. I think that, I think, is the real problem, which is the fact that if you will not run a budget surplus now, then when will you ever run a budget surplus?
- Keynes would have said in good times you run surpluses and in bad times you run deficits, not that you run deficits permanently